How does non renewable ammonia hydrates still exist on the surface of geologically inactive bodies after 4Gyr?
The earth has an atmosphere #Pluto's moons don't, where does this young surfaced ammonia come from? |
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A copy of the paper with highlighted text and embedded comments. |
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Since creating this page, I reached out to planetary scientists via twitter and email, most are coauthors on the SS paper.
April 7th, 2017 I asked each of the scientists to read this page and critique it looking for any scientific errors. I indicated I would gladly remove any errors found. If I am wrong, I do not want to spread false information. I have heard back from one scientist (Stuart Robbins) and have edited some of this page's content and removed a quote which he felt was taken out of context. |
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In a press conference in March 2016 Kelsi Singer (co-author of the SS paper), explained why they conclude the entire Pluto system is age dated as an ancient event not a recent one.
Watch the video Two points in this video are used to suggest this system is ancient,
Point 1: When considering circular vs elliptical orbits scientists are naturally considering externally captured objects not ejected objects. |
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Pluto and Charon orbit a barycentric point outside both planets, this means their combined gravitational equator is pretty much the outside orbital ring of Charon. This, in essence, creates an extremely distorted co-equatorial gravitational bulge compared to their collective heights.
Objects ejected from both bodies would either escape easily into space or get captured in this equatorial zone. The small moons are ejected objects that got captured in this equatorial gravity zone during the Mordor impact that blasted chunks off Charon. |
Its not like you can just look at Pluto and say it's equator is the controlling factor in capturing ejected objects, their combined orbits and mass act as a gravitational capture mechanism elongating their collective gravitational bulge.
Their equatorial gravity field probably looks much like a Frisbee, anything that gets near it gets caught in it. Around Earth there are estimated to be millions of space junk debris most of which is collected around the equator. |
This is Nix imaged by both the MVIC and LORRI cameras.
<<<<<<<<<<MVIC These are the 11 impacts identified by the MVIC camera (N_MPAN_CA in the white table below) represented by red diamonds in the respective charts. LORRI>>>>>>>>>>> These are the same 1-5 duplicate identified impacts by the LORRI camera. These 5 impacts are the same numbered impacts on the left by MVIC and are represented by pink diamonds in the charts. |
Note how there are 4 red, 2 pink & 3 blue diamonds and triangle.
This chart is missing 7 red and 3 pink diamonds. 10 of 19 data points are missing. More than half the data is not represented in this chart. The pink diamonds are not separate individual impacts from what is identified by the MVIC camera (red diamonds) they are duplicate data from a different (LORRI) camera. LORRI is the LOng Range camera. In other words it takes clearer pictures at longer ranges than the MVIC camera. This means LORRI (pink diamonds) gives a clearer more precise image for calculating the diameter of the crater. |
It appears to me as though there are far more impacts on Nix than the 11 yellow dots appear to suggest. Take a moment to look over this image. Look for craters there's lots of them. I've placed red arrows at some but not all the impacts I can find on Nix which are in addition to the 11 used for creating Kelsi's age dating chart. If these additional impacts had been accounted for the data points for Nix's impact's per area or Y axis would have been off the chart, (literally) making Nix far older than Pluto and Charon. In this image we only see about a quarter of Nix. Half is on the back side while a little less than half of the viewable side is hidden by shadow. To say there are only 11 impacts on Nix stretches the bounds of reality. To add more impacts stretches the bounds of this dating method. For now lets stay with the idea Nix has 11 impacts. |
Here's the data presented in the SS paper from which Kelsi's black chart was created.
All white charts came from the NASA "SS" paper titled "The Small Satellites of Pluto as Observed by New Horizons" The black chart used by Kelsi Singer above during the press conference was developed from the charts in this paper. All the impact data points are displayed in this white chart along with 5 additional pink data points (LORRI camera) which are duplicate but more accurate and clearer imaged data. Even though there are only 14 impacts (3-Hydra, 11-Nix) used to create the 4 byr theory, 19 are used in this chart because two camera's captured the same info twice on 5 of the larger impacts (pink diamonds). In this chart you can see all the data points used by NASA scientists to conclude the moons are 4 billion years old (upper left corner says "Not Scaled"). The crater diameter scale (horizontal X axis) in Kelsi's black chart runs from 1 km to 100 km whereas the white chart's crater diameter range is from 0.1 km to 1000 km. |
I've added Kelsi's blue & purple lines on this chart to give an apple's to apple's comparison.
My diagonal lines appear steeper because the crater size scale is larger on this chart (0.1 km to 1000 km). The omitted 3 pink diamonds from Kelsi's chart sit below the 2 byr line, this is probably why they were not included on Kelsi's black chart. Notice how this chart's right two pink diamonds are both below the yellow 4 byr line, whereas in Kelsi's chart they are shifted further to the right, that's because Kelsi's pink diamonds have been scaled by 2.1 or shifted to the right to reflect regolith not water ice at 2.6. More on scaling in a minute but take note of how this chart says "Scaled by 2.6" in the upper left corner. Note how the black dots (Pluto) data points are primarily on or below the yellow 4 billion year line. I would guestimate about half of the black data points are below 4 byr, some are well below the 2 byr line. |
To get the data to fit expectations it needed to be adjusted or scaled to compensate for their mass and density.
The two choices (expressed in the paper) for the moon's composition were water ice or regolith (powdered dust as seen on Earth's moon). NASA scientists' chose to use both which seems strange to me considering the info collected by their reflectance data shows Nix to be closely related to water ice not regolith and Hydras closely related to Charon which is considered to be mostly water ice. Spectroscopically Nix and Hydra's surfaces are crystallized water ice. |
This statement posses another question.
It is noted that the mass of Charon is not enough to retain the volatile ices (gasses) which on Pluto make it possible to create tholins. If mass is a requirement for tholin creation how do small objects like the one that impacted Nix which produced its red crater zit obtain their tholin? How did the 30 mile sized object 1994 JR1 become red? Also based on Robin Canup's collision model both bodies had to be uniform not partially differentiated to remain separate bodies during the theoretical impact. |
Wiki quote
Initial predictions envisioned Kerberos as a relatively large and massive object whose dark surface led to it having a faint reflection. This proved to be wrong as images obtained by New Horizons on July 14 and sent back to Earth in October 2015 revealed an object just 8 km (5.0 mi) across with a highly reflective surface suggesting the presence of relatively clean water ice. Quote from Universe Today Article Astronomers rank an object’s reflectivity by its albedo (al-BEE-do). A body that reflects 100% of the light is said to have an albedo of 1.0. Venus’ albedo is .75 and reflects 75% of the light it receives from the sun, while the darker Earth’s average is 30%. Trees and the darker-toned continents reflect much less light compared to Venus’ pervasive cloud cover. In contrast, the coal-dark moon reflects only 12% of the sunlight falling on it and fresh asphalt just 4% – smack in the middle of the 2-6% range of most known comets. Comet 67p has a reflectance or albedo of 0.06 (6%) comparable to charcoal and is really dark because of all the regolith on its surface. Its covered in 8 inches of dark dust or regolith. Nix has an albedo of .56 (56% reflected light) and Hydra .83 (83%), indicating they are not covered in regolith. The below image shows a comparison of how dark comet 67p is relative to Enceladus, Earth and our Moon |
The scientists whose names are on this SS paper completely ignore their own spectroscopic data which clearly shows Nix and Hydra's surfaces are bright reflective crystalline water ice and instead make this bizarre statement.
These small moons are likely rubble piles, so we choose regolith scaling as the most reasonable material They chose regolith to scale the 11 red diamonds by 2.1 and water ice to scale the other data points by 2.6. |
Choosing regolith would naturally bias the data toward the 4 byr line which was desired and expected. Dare I say, demanded?
It really is odd they chose regolith especially when you see images like these where the red tholin covered impactor gouged out a crater on Nix exposing what appears to be white ice along the inside crater wall. NASA focuses only on the impact ejecta to conclude this entire Nix moon is regolith covered. |
Back to the SS paper.
Take note how the green squares and black circles taper and trail off to the left. As the diameter of the impactor decreases it shifts to the left on this chart. This chart has 11 red diamonds scaled by 2.1 reflecting Nix is composed of regolith. The pink and blue points are scaled by 2.6 reflecting duplicate Nix data and Hydra craters are composed of water ice. The pink diamonds are duplicate data points as two cameras were used on Nix. One camera's (LORRI) resolution was only good enough to see 5 impacts while the other (MVIC) identified 11. To help give a better sense of this data shift, I lined the "Scaled" and "Not Scaled" data on top of each other and drew a blue line vertically down the 1 km crater impact mark. |
Look at the blue line and compare the top and bottom red and pink diamond's relationship to that blue line.
This is what the scaling does, it shifts the data for the small moons to the left on this chart consequently setting their respective ages to the desired value. Had they not scaled the data these moons would imply they are 8-10 billion years old. The degree of shift is based on mass and density which is unknown. There's nothing wrong with this scaling process per se, its just another one of those variables that become self deterministic preferential input that can skew the results. I'm not saying there's any reason not to scale the data. I'm pointing out how data is manipulated to create the desired results. Start with a predetermined conclusion and you can make any data match your expectations. Albert Einstein did it with his cosmological constant lambda and NASA's New Horizons team is doing it with Pluto. |
The paper says Nix and Hydra crater sizes are scaled downward by a factor of 2.1 (appropriate for porous regolith-type material) but the white chart has text saying "Scaled by 2.6" which relates to water ice. This discrepancy along with Kelsi shifting her data points confused me as to what was actually happening with these charts and data so I created this table to understand better exactly what was taking place. The SS paper (white charts) used regolith (scaled to 2.1) to place the red diamonds on the chart but used water ice (scaled to 2.6) to place the pink diamonds & blue triangles. Kelsi used regolith (scaled to 2.1) for all her data points. Neither used water ice to scale all the data. Hmm? If water ice had been used to scale the red diamonds, the largest two craters would have fallen on or below the 4 byr line and the next two would have dropped well below the 3 byr line. Had they not used regolith, there would have been no crater's indicating an age for these moons older than 4 byr. This I assume is why both the SS paper and Kelsi used regolith to scale the red diamonds. |
Kelsi Singer calls her falsified data "Proof" of the giant impact theory as well as proving the impact took place over 4 byr ago. Proof - intentional falsified data is now considered proof? The white chart shows "Scaled to 2.6" in the upper left corner, whereas, most of the data points (red diamonds) are instead actually scaled to 2.1. This appears to be an exercise in saying we are doing the right thing (scaling with water ice at 2.6) but then plotting most of the data scaled to 2.1 (regolith). This feels very much like the slight of hand maneuver exercised when NASA claimed they saw tholin on the south pole of Charon via Pluto shine then waited four months to release a grainy black and white Pluto shine image. With the degree of precision these papers are written, its hard for me to believe this is accidental. What I decided to do was take Kelsi Singer's chart and remove her 9 data points for Nix and Hydra then place all the data points back onto the chart with the water ice scale of 2.6 instead of the regolith scale of 2.1. This way we can see what these water icy moon crater's age would indicate if these charts were consistent with actual crystalline water ice observations. |
@alanstern Based on NASA data and using water ice to scale the data the small moons of #Pluto appear to be 2.65 Gyr
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Apparently Alan thought I averaged all the data points but to be clear, I did not include any of the data points for Charon. I only averaged the red diamonds as a group then the pink diamonds as a group then the blue triangles as a group then I averaged all those smaller satellite impacts as a whole group.
I did not include any green data points from Charon. This then should satisfy Alan's concern of cross mixing the Charon data with the small satellites data. If it was a bad practice for me to average all the red, pink and blue impacts then simply ignore that and look at each moon's data individually. The average of the blue diamonds sits just above 2 billion years. The average pink diamonds sits around 2.6 billion years old. The average of the red diamonds sits around 2.85 billion years old. Seems to me then saying the total average of 2.65 billion years is in line with what their correct data implies, not 4 byr. |
Mr. Stern was 1 of 51 scientists who collaborated on this SS paper. I doubt Mr. Stern or many of the other scientists scrutinized the data points like I did.
One person created the charts and placed boldly on the chart "Scaled to 2.6" which is water ice but then actually scaled 11 of 19 MVIC data points to 2.1 for regolith biasing the data toward 4 billion years. |
Kelsi Singer's black chart with more than 50% of the data omitted and all of it scaled for regolith, implies the moons are 4 byr old.
The NASA paper indicates the moons are anywhere from 1.5 byr to older than 4 byr but without a diagonal line representing 5 byr I can't tell how much beyond 4 byr. Mr. Stern says the moons are 3-4 byr old, The data scaled for water ice says 2.65 byr But erratic spin, axial alignment (obliquity), reflectance (albedo), spectroscopic data, red tholin impact and ammonia hydrates say less than 1 billion years. |
These small satellite moons are dead geologically and atmospherically so there is no method for renewing the ammonia hydrates which have been found on the surface by NASA and without a renewable source the Sun's photon's would disassemble all the ammonia hydrates within 20 million years.
Detecting ammonia hydrates is as close to carbon dating as you can get without taking a direct sample. The albedo is another strong indicator of youth. Without a resupply source, the ammonia wouldn't exist if these moons were more than 20 million years old. NASA is saying ammonia hydrates would photodissociate within 20 to 200 million years but Cooper et al 2003 says 20 myr. |
In this image I was trying to point out how ripples, rings or waves emanate outward from some of the large impacting debris. I did this to show how the surface was still somewhat soft when these objects fell back onto it. But if you look around this image you can see many examples of angular shaped impacts along with angular debris everywhere. To me this is strongly suggestive that Charon exploded under the tidal flexing pressure and possibly by an added force, the impact at Mordor. After the explosion fluid spilled onto the surface and began to harden while orbital debris from the explosion fell back onto the surface. There are hundreds or thousands of small bits and pieces that fell back onto the surface just after the fluid spilled out and was hardening. This increased orbital debris would have skewed the frequency with which impacts resulted. |